When politicians, fund managers and development professionals look to highlight the success of democratic Nigeria, they typically point to one, key statistic: when the military stood down in 1999 after an almost unbroken generation in power, per capita income in Africa's most populous state was USD1,940; by 2013, under civilian rule, it had leapt to USD5,360. Growth in GDP has been robust, foreign reserves are up (on the precarious levels of 1999, although currently under pressure as revenues drop), debt is down, telecoms and banking have boomed. The international media regularly contrasts Nigeria's vibrant private sector in the South with the apocalyptic brutality of the Islamist insurgency that has been sweeping the North-East of the country. A rather less heralded statistic associated with the apparent dividends of the new constitutional era in Nigeria is the price of oil in an economy where oil and gas typically generate at least, and in recent years very much more, than 90 percent of overall export earnings. Oil was hovering around USD10 a barrel when General Abdulsalami Abubakar left office, just as prices begin a sustained an exponential boom, peaking at USD140/barrel in 2008 and until June this year still well above USD100. In [...]
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